Merino Breaks Belgian Hearts Again — Spain Into the Semis

Eighty-eight minutes. That's how long Belgium held on. Thibaut Courtois — heroic, imperious, making six saves against an xG of 2.08 — forced off with a thigh problem. Backup Senne Lammens thrown into one of the biggest football matches of the year. And then Pau Cubarsi lets fly, Lammens spills it, and Mikel Merino — the man who already broke Portugal's hearts with a stoppage-time winner in the round of 16 — taps in from close range. Spain are in the World Cup semi-finals. Belgium are going home. And frankly, the statistics make this look a lot more dramatic than it should have been.

Luis de la Fuente's side had 68% possession, completed 598 of 665 passes at 90% accuracy, and generated 2.08 xG to Belgium's 0.37. Seventeen total shots to five. Eight on target to two. This was a dominant display that somehow ended 1-1 going into the final ten minutes, and the only story there is Courtois — and then Lammens, who kept Belgium alive long enough for hope to exist before the cruelest of endings. Fabián Ruiz opened the scoring, giving Spain a deserved lead that their standing — top of their group, seven points, five wins from five with a goal difference of +5 and a WWWWW run of form — fully reflects. Charles De Ketelaere, SAM Rating 8.4/10 and the tournament's most dangerous forward for Belgium with four goals and an assist this World Cup, levelled to send SoFi into a brief, stunned silence. It was the first goal Spain had conceded all tournament, ending what had been a historic run of six consecutive World Cup clean sheets. De Ketelaere had already scored twice against the USA in the round of 16 — this man is not afraid of the big occasion.

Belgium arrived at SoFi with the injury list of a mid-table Premier League side in February. Amadou Onana — arguably their best midfielder, the defensive screen that allowed De Bruyne to roam — ruptured his ACL against the United States and is done not just for this tournament but for a significant portion of Aston Villa's upcoming campaign. Zeno Debast, their first-choice defender, missed the entire knockout run with a leg injury. Youri Tielemans, a key creative contributor with one goal and two assists in this World Cup, suffered an injury in the warmup and couldn't start. Jeremy Doku, SAM Rating 8.6/10 and the side's most electric ball-carrier with 12 key passes across four appearances and two assists, came in as a doubt due to illness. Coach Rudi Garcia deserves serious credit for keeping Belgium competitive this long — but against Spain, a shorthanded side offering an xG of just 0.37 was always going to need a miracle. They nearly pulled one off. Credit where it's due: they made La Roja sweat for 88 minutes.

For Spain, it's a semi-final against France — back-to-back finalists and the tournament's co-favourites. The SAM ratings tell the story of where Spain's engine is: Rodri (SAM 8.6/10, averaging 9.7 points per game) was immense in midfield, making Witsel's booking for a late lunge look inevitable by the hour mark. Lamine Yamal (SAM 8.6/10) tormented the Belgian backline all night despite still searching for full consistency in this Bundesliga-and-La-Liga-calibre squad that is frankly built for moments exactly like this. Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain's top scorer with two goals from two appearances and a real-world rating of 8.7, remained a constant threat alongside Ferran Torres, who has chipped in with one goal and one assist across four apps. The less said about the Víctor Muñoz situation — a new Liverpool signing rated SAM 8.8/10 who has yet to feature due to a pre-tournament calf injury and a subsequent muscular setback — the better, because de la Fuente clearly doesn't need him. This team has depth that would make Serie A and Champions League clubs envious. The semi-final against France on Tuesday cannot come soon enough.