Huntley vs. Watson: Ravens Still Win Without Lamar

Lamar Jackson is not playing Sunday. That alone rewrites this game's entire narrative. Ravens head coach Jesse Minter confirmed Friday that Jackson, still nursing a left sprained ankle suffered in Week 4 against the Titans, is officially out for the second week running. The man who already pulled off a dramatic overtime win against Atlanta without his MVP quarterback now sends Tyler Huntley back into the fire on the road in Cleveland. Baltimore arrives at 4-1, the class of the AFC North, and even without their superstar they are favored. Vegas opened this one with the Ravens at -4.5 (-110) on the spread, moneyline at -225, with the total set at 41.5. That alone tells you everything about how oddsmakers view the talent gap between these two rosters.

Here's where it gets interesting. Cleveland is 3-2 and genuinely needs this win to avoid sliding two games behind Baltimore in the division standings. But the Browns' injury report reads like a hospital ward manifest. Defensive tackles Mason Graham and Mike Hall Jr. have both missed practice all week after picking up injuries against Pittsburgh, and neither played in the Week 5 loss to the Jets either. Linebacker Carson Schwesinger is also banged up with an ankle issue. Running back Quinshon Judkins, spotted in a walking boot after the Jets game, is listed as day-to-day with an ankle and did not practice Wednesday. Raheim Sanders has been placed on injured reserve entirely. That leaves head coach Todd Monken leaning on Jaleel McLaughlin and a freshly signed Audric Estime, who only became a Brown on Tuesday, to carry the ground game. Cleveland's rushing attack was already ranked 21st in the league before this week's carnage hit the running back room. That's a problem.

Deshaun Watson starts at quarterback for the Browns, the role he won over Shedeur Sanders in a genuine training camp competition this summer. Watson's been functional enough to keep Cleveland above .500, but the offensive EPA sits at a concerning -0.063 per play and the team averages just 5.4 yards per play. Monken's ground-heavy, clock-controlling approach mirrors what Baltimore does on offense, which is why the under has serious merit. The Ravens themselves run a pass rate of just 42% in neutral situations, ranking 30th in the league, and Baltimore projects at roughly 6.5 yards per play even with Huntley under center. Huntley already proved last week that he can manage an offense well enough to win, orchestrating a fourth quarter comeback against Atlanta before closing it out in overtime. Don't sleep on what this offense can still do with Derrick Henry carrying the load.

The Ravens' own injury report is far from clean. Center Cam Jurgens is out with a concussion, tight end Matthew Hibner misses with a hand injury, and Broderick Washington is ruled out on defense. Zay Flowers is managing a hamstring issue, and Trey Hendrickson's finger has limited his pass rush presence throughout recent weeks. The offensive line protection around Huntley will be patchwork. But let's be real — Cleveland's depleted defensive interior, missing Graham and Hall Jr., is the worst possible matchup for containing Henry between the tackles. The tape doesn't lie. When Henry gets downhill against soft fronts, champions league-level athletes or not, it ends the same way. Baltimore's ground game will carry this offense, chew clock, and bleed a Browns offense that cannot afford to fall behind early.

The series history favors Baltimore heavily, with the Ravens owning a 39-15 all-time edge. Cleveland has won just two of the last three games against the spread in this rivalry over recent meetings, and the Browns are coming off an ugly 17-12 loss to the Jets that featured eight sacks allowed and a missed extra point. The wounds from that game, literally, are still fresh. Give credit where it's due to this Cleveland team for staying competitive at 3-2 under a new head coach navigating a brutal roster situation — but this is not the week for a breakthrough. Baltimore wins an ugly, low-scoring, clock-eating divisional game. The preview card answer is Baltimore 20, Cleveland 13.