Cowboys Try to Exorcise Arizona's Ghost at AT&T Stadium
Dallas favored by 6.5 but history says don't sleep on these Cardinals
Dak Prescott has thrown for 1,851 yards, 13 touchdowns, and five picks through seven weeks — and Arizona is giving up 29.7 points per game, the worst mark in the entire NFL. You do that math. Yet somehow, this series carries a weight that the numbers alone can't explain. Dallas is 1-8 against Arizona since 2008. One win. In eighteen years. That's not a slump, that's a haunting. And the Cowboys, sitting at 3-4 in the NFC East and desperately trying to string together consecutive wins for the first time this season, need to shake it Sunday at AT&T Stadium.
Here's where it gets interesting. Brian Schottenheimer's squad is coming off one of its most complete performances of the year, a road win in Philadelphia where Javonte Williams absolutely went off — 155 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. Williams is now a weekly fantasy football must-start, and the matchup this week couldn't set up better for him. Arizona ranks 23rd in the NFL in rush defense, giving up 4.7 yards per attempt and 126.3 rushing yards per game. If the Cowboys offensive line keeps opening lanes the way it did against the Eagles, Williams gets his second 100-yard game of the season without breaking a sweat. On the other side of the ball, CeeDee Lamb caught two touchdown passes Monday in what was a vintage Lamb effort, and he brings 651 receiving yards and six touchdowns into a matchup against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed 17 touchdown passes and is posting a 112.5 opposing passer rating. That's not a secondary. That's a welcome mat. The line has Dallas as 6.5-point favorites with the over/under sitting at 54.5, and honestly the Cowboys -340 on the moneyline feels almost generous.
The injury report tells its own story. For Dallas, Quinnen Williams, George Pickens, and rookie safety Caleb Downs all battled through a limited practice week — Williams with a hamstring, Pickens with a shoulder issue, and Downs nursing an ankle he aggravated in the Eagles win. Coach Schottenheimer confirmed Friday that all three are expected to play, which is a significant boost to a defense that needs its best bodies against Arizona's one genuine weapon: tight end Trey McBride. The tape doesn't lie on McBride. He has 59 receptions for 472 yards and four touchdowns through seven weeks, tops in the NFL among tight ends. He went for 10 catches and 111 yards against Denver in Week 7 alone, and with Jacoby Brissett limited to just 5.7 yards per attempt, McBride is the entire Cardinals offense. Arizona is also without OT Paris Johnson and CB Will Johnson for the season, and RB James Conner remains on injured reserve. Rookie Jeremiyah Love is set to return from his ankle injury, but the Cardinals are still a badly banged-up squad walking into one of the NFL's loudest home environments. From a premier league standpoint, this is the kind of visit where a struggling side gets put to the sword. But Arizona Head Coach Mike LaFleur knows his team has owned this series, and with trade deadline buzz swirling around Josh Sweat — an NFC executive already told ESPN that a Sweat-to-Dallas deal 'makes a lot of sense' — expect Sweat to come to play with something to prove on both sides of a potential deal.
Let's be real: this is the Cowboys' game to lose. The O/U of 54.5 points screams points on the board, and with Arizona ranked a league-worst in points allowed and Dallas second in the NFL in points scored at 189, this should be one-way traffic for long stretches. The one scenario that flips the script is McBride going full serie a fantasy star mode in the middle of the field against a Cowboys linebacking corps that still has Dee Winters dealing with a calf issue. But even if McBride eats, Arizona doesn't have enough elsewhere to keep pace. The Cardinals have won four straight in this series per analytics reports, but this Cowboys offense is too efficient, the venue tilts Dallas's way, and Williams is rolling. Dallas wins, covers, and the trade deadline circus gets a little louder by Monday morning.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 34, Arizona Cardinals 17.
