The numbers behind the table
Expected goals and expected points for every finished match we hold, across six football competitions and the NFL. The league table says what happened. This says whether it should have.
La Liga — ranked on the model
Expected goal difference per match: the chances a side created minus the chances it conceded, which is a steadier description of a team than a scoreline that turned on one deflection. Based on the 20 clubs the model has seen at least 3 matches of.
Running ahead of the model, and behind it
Actual points minus expected points, over the matches the model has seen. Above the line a side has taken more from its chances than the model says it should; below it, less. Neither is a verdict - it is the size of the gap a reader should be asking about.
Every division we analyse
Manchester City lead
SC Freiburg lead
Monaco lead
Inter lead
Legia Warszawa lead
FC Barcelona leadThe SAM metric board
Our own rating, across every position. The full board and the position breakdowns are on the NFL desk.
Latest from the desk
Josh Allen racked up 331 total yards and Buffalo's Greg Rousseau blocked a Harrison Mevis field goal attempt in overtime to set up Tyler Bass's game-winning 45-yarder as the Bills outlasted the Rams 37-34 in a Monday Night Football classic at SoFi Stadium.
The New England Patriots dismantled the Las Vegas Raiders 45-17 at Gillette Stadium in Week 5, piling up 536 total yards and eight scoring drives to send a clear message in the AFC.
The Baltimore Ravens survived a back-and-forth Sunday night battle in Atlanta, holding on for a 30-23 win on the strength of 208 rushing yards and a game-winning 14-play drive in the fourth quarter.
The Minnesota Vikings controlled the clock and the line of scrimmage in New Orleans, rushing for 153 yards and holding the Saints to a historically low 142 total yards in a 23-13 road win that keeps Minnesota rolling early in the 2026 season.
The San Francisco 49ers outlasted the Seattle Seahawks 32-29 in a wild Week 5 NFC West clash at Lumen Field, surviving four Seattle turnovers and a second-half Seahawks surge to escape with a crucial divisional road win.
The Steelers picked up a 34-22 win over the Colts at Acrisure Stadium in Week 5, but this one was far from comfortable. Pittsburgh trailed or was tied multiple times before pulling away late.