Bayern vs Mainz: The Gap Is Brutal and the Numbers Prove It

FC Bayern München put six past RB Leipzig. They beat SC Freiburg 3-1. Even their draw against Borussia Dortmund came with two goals scored. In their last six Bundesliga matches, Bayern have scored 22 times and conceded just seven, going W, W, D, W, W, D without a single defeat. FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have lost four of their last six, conceded 17 and shipped four goals in a single game against Elversberg. That is the gap we are dealing with on Saturday.

Here's the thing — it gets worse for Mainz when you look at who isn't available. D. Kohr is out with an ankle injury, S. Posch is suspended, and P. Mwene misses out through a yellow card suspension. That is two centre-backs and a left wing-back unavailable before we even kick off. O. Ruoppi is also missing with knee problems. For a side that has already conceded 17 in their last six matches, losing that much defensive cover ahead of a game against the Bundesliga's most potent attack is, and that's putting it mildly, a serious problem. R. Zentner in goal has made two saves across just two appearances in our records — which tells you Mainz's defenders have not been shipping chances from every angle, but they've still been leaking goals freely.

Bayern arrive in decent shape, though not without their own injury concerns. L. Díaz, who scored 4 goals in just 2 appearances before suffering a torn muscle bundle, is out. S. Gnabry is absent with a hamstring injury, I. Saibari has a syndesmotic ligament tear, and Bara Ndiaye is recovering from an appendectomy. That is four players missing, including some genuine attacking threat. But look at what remains. M. Olise has 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 appearances, with 16 key passes — he is one of the most productive players in the Bundesliga this season and will fancy his chances against a makeshift Mainz backline. H. Kane has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists from 4 games, while D. Upamecano, a centre-back, has somehow scored 3 goals this season and is a threat from set pieces that any struggling defence should be terrified of. J. Kimmich has 3 assists from 3 appearances and 8 key passes — the kind of creative output from a defensive midfield role that makes life very difficult for compact, defensive-minded teams, let alone a Mainz side that scored just 12 goals across their last six matches.

For fantasy football purposes, Olise is the standout pick in this fixture — his output across goals, assists and key passes is the kind of numbers that make him attractive in any premier league or top-flight context. The Mainz attack, with no goals or assists on record from any of their forwards in our data, offers very little in comparison. N. Amiri leads the Mainz creative output with 9 key passes from his two appearances in the records, which at least hints at some ambition going forward, but ambition without a clean sheet and against this Bayern side counts for very little.

Mainz grabbed a 1-0 win at Schalke recently, but a 3-2 home defeat to Werder Bremen and that 4-1 hammering at Elversberg suggest this squad is fragile right now. Bayern, unbeaten in six, with 22 goals scored and a frontline that retains Olise and Kane even with Díaz absent, are simply in a different bracket. Bayern win this one, and it isn't going to be particularly comfortable viewing for the Mainz faithful.

Clubs in this story

FC Bayern München FSV Mainz 05 Borussia Dortmund Werder Bremen SC Freiburg Elversberg RB Leipzig